Seminars & Events

Mathematics and Computer Science Division Seminar
"Demographic impacts on future carbon emissions: A global assessment"

DATE: April 12, 2010
TIME: 10:30 AM - 11:30 AM
SPEAKER: Brian O\'Neill, NCAR
LOCATION: Building 240 Room 1405, Argonne National Laboratory
HOST: Todd Munson

Description:
Substantial changes in population size, age structure, and urbanization are expected in many parts of the world this century. Although such changes can affect energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, emissions scenario analyses have either left them out or treated them in a fragmentary or overly simplified manner. We carry out the first comprehensive assessment of the implications of demographic change for global emissions of carbon dioxide. Using a new energy-economic growth model that accounts for a range of demographic dynamics, we show that slowing population growth could provide 16-29% of the emissions reductions suggested to be necessary by 2050 to avoid dangerous climate change. We
also find that aging and urbanization can substantially influence emissions in particular world regions.

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