Seminars & Events

Mathematics and Computer Science Division Climate Modeling Group
"Cloud Feedbacks and Catastrophic Arctic Sea Ice Loss"

DATE: June 4, 2010
TIME: 10:00 AM - 11:00 AM
SPEAKER: Dorian Abbot, TC Chamberlin Postdoctoral Fellow, University of Chicago; Junior Fellow, Canadian Institute for Adva
LOCATION: Building 240 Conference Room 1407, Argonne National Laboratory
HOST: Rob Jacob

Description:
Abstract: There has been significant interest in the possibility that nonlinear threshold behavior could cause a catastrophic collapse of Arctic sea ice. An innovative dynamical systems model of Arctic sea ice has recently been proposed that suggests that ice self-insulation can prevent tipping point behavior in summer sea ice. Here a framework for analyzing and understanding cloud feedbacks using this dynamical systems model of Arctic sea ice is advanced. It is shown that cloud feedbacks strongly influence nonlinear threshold behavior of Arctic sea ice and that irreversible loss of summer sea ice is possible in some portion of the cloud feedback parameter space. Comparison with a global climate model and reanalysis data suggests that the cloud feedback regime in which nonlinear summer sea ice loss is possible may be relevant for future climate.

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