|Title||Ensemble-Based Parameter Estimation In A Coupled GCM Using The Adaptive Spatial Average Method |
|Publication Type||Journal Article |
|Year of Publication||2014 |
|Authors||Liu, Y, Liu, Z, Zhang, S, Rong, X, Jacob, RL, Wu, S, Lu, F |
|Journal||Journal of Climate |
|Other Numbers||ANL/MCS-P5084-0214 |
Ensemble-based parameter estimation for a climate model is emerging as an important topic in climate research. For a complex system as a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, the sensitivity and response of a model variable to a model parameter could vary spatially and temporally. Here, we propose an adaptive spatial average (ASA) algorithm to increase the efficiency of parameter estimation. Refined from a previous spatial average method, the ASA uses the ensemble spread as the criterion for selecting “good” values from the spatially varying posterior estimated parameter values; the “good” values are then averaged to give the final global uniform posterior parameter. In comparison with existing methods, the ASA parameter estimation has a superior performance: faster convergence and enhanced signal-to-noise ratio.