Predicting Agricultural Impacts of Large-Scale Drought: 2012 and The Case for Better Modeling

TitlePredicting Agricultural Impacts of Large-Scale Drought: 2012 and The Case for Better Modeling
Publication TypeReport
Year of Publication2013
AuthorsElliott, J, Glotter, M, Best, NA, Boote, K, Jones, JP, Hatfield, J, Rosenzweig, C, Smith, LA, Foster, IT
Document NumberRDCEP Working Paper No. 13-01
Date Published02/2013
InstitutionUniversity of Chicago Center for Robust Decisionmaking on Climate & Energy Policy
Other NumbersANL/MCS-P4035-0213
Abstract

The 2012 growing season saw one of the worst droughts in a generation in much of the United States. A warm, dry winter ended early and abruptly with an extraordinary heat wave in March that left soils parched in much of the country. A hot spring and hotter summer, punctuated by a near-unprecedented hot June, left many crops stunted and heat stressed. Sustained hot conditions significantly accelerated crop development stages, and continued hot dry conditions through July meant plant stress during key stages around flowering in much of the Corn Belt. Drought extent finally peaked in September, at which point 65.45% of the contiguous United States was experiencing drought conditions according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

PDFhttp://www.mcs.anl.gov/papers/P4035-0213.pdf