Predicting Agricultural Impacts of Large-Scale Drought: 2012 and The Case for Better Modeling
|Title||Predicting Agricultural Impacts of Large-Scale Drought: 2012 and The Case for Better Modeling|
|Year of Publication||2013|
|Authors||Elliott, J, Glotter, M, Best, NA, Boote, K, Jones, JP, Hatfield, J, Rosenzweig, C, Smith, LA, Foster, IT|
|Document Number||RDCEP Working Paper No. 13-01|
|Institution||University of Chicago Center for Robust Decisionmaking on Climate & Energy Policy|
The 2012 growing season saw one of the worst droughts in a generation in much of the United States. A warm, dry winter ended early and abruptly with an extraordinary heat wave in March that left soils parched in much of the country. A hot spring and hotter summer, punctuated by a near-unprecedented hot June, left many crops stunted and heat stressed. Sustained hot conditions significantly accelerated crop development stages, and continued hot dry conditions through July meant plant stress during key stages around flowering in much of the Corn Belt. Drought extent finally peaked in September, at which point 65.45% of the contiguous United States was experiencing drought conditions according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.