Argonne National Laboratory

Stochastic Simulation of Predictive Space-Time Scenarios of Wind Speed Using Observations and Physical Models

TitleStochastic Simulation of Predictive Space-Time Scenarios of Wind Speed Using Observations and Physical Models
Publication TypeConference Paper
Year of Publication2016
AuthorsBessac, J, Constantinescu, EM, Anitescu, M
Conference NameAmerican Meteorological Society
Date Published01/2016
PublisherAMS
Conference LocationNew Orleans, LA
Other NumbersANL/MCS-P5432-1015
AbstractWe propose a statistical space-time model for the prediction of atmospheric wind speed based on deterministic numerical weather predictions and historical measurements. We consider a Gaussian multivariate space-time framework that combines multiple sources of past physical model outputs and measurements along with model predictions in order to produce a probabilistic wind speed forecast within the prediction window. We illustrate this strategy on ground wind speed forecast for several months in 2012 for a region near the Great Lakes in the US. The results show that (i) the prediction is improved in the mean-squared sense relatively to the numerical fore- casts as well as (ii) in probabilistic scores. Moreover, (iii) the samples are shown to produce realistic wind scenarios based on the sample spectrum.  
URLhttps://ams.confex.com/ams/96Annual/webprogram/Paper290588.html
PDFhttp://www.mcs.anl.gov/papers/P5432-1015.pdf