Office #: 2151
• Mathematics and Computer Science
• Argonne National Laboratory
• Fellow of the Computation Institute
• University of Chicago
Quantifying Global Structural Errors in Predictive Scientific Simulations
Funding: Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research, Office of Science, Department of Energy
Synopsis: Computational simulations of complex systems, such as climate and power grid applications, are needed to understand physical phenomena and design efficient systems. In this context, making accurate predictions is critical to DOE's energy security mission. A major difficulty in predictive modeling is correctly capturing the physics and component interactions across vastly different temporal and spatial scales. Typically, only a subset of these interactions is captured, leading to structural errors in model predictions that can result in inefficient operation or overdesign of elements that interact with these systems. To address this problem, this project will develop mathematically rigorous and robust numerical strategies for quantifying global structural errors and representing model errors in complex simulations. This work constitutes a novel direction in the way uncertainty is represented in dynamical simulations and will provide rigorous uncertainty prediction bounds in many engineering and science applications important to the DOE mission.
Papers, Conference Presentations, and Proceedings
- Ahmed Attia and Emil M. Constantinescu, "Optimal experimental design for inverse problems in the presence of observation correlations." Submitted, 2020. [https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.14476]
- Shaohui Liu, Adrian Maldonado, and Emil Constantinescu, "Probabilistic analysis of masked loads with aggregated photovoltaic production." Electric Power Systems Research, Vol 189, pp. 106670, 2020. [https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.10334]
- Emil M. Constantinescu, Noemi Petra, Julie Bessac, and Cosmin G. Petra, "Statistical treatment of inverse problems constrained by differential equations-based models with stochastic terms." SIAM Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, Vol 8(1), pp. 170-197, 2020. [https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.08557]
Joseph Hart*, Julie Bessac, and Emil M. Constantinescu, "Global sensitivity analysis for statistical model parameters." SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, 7(1), 67–92, 2019. [Preprint # ANL/MCS-P8006-0817, https://arxiv.org/abs/1708.07441].
- Ahmed Attia* and Emil M. Constantinescu, "An optimal experimental design framework for adaptive inflation and covariance localization for ensemble filters." Submitted, 2018. [https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.10655]
- Hanqi Guo, Wenbin He, Sangmin Seo, Han-Wei Shen, Emil M. Constantinescu, Chunhui Liu, and Tom Peterka, "Extreme-scale stochastic particle tracing for uncertain unsteady flow visualization and analysis." In press, IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics, 2018.
- Oana Marin*, Emil Constantinescu, and Barry Smith, "PDE-constrained optimization with spectral elements using PETSc and TAO." Submitted, 2018. [https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.01422]
- Julie Bessac*, Emil M. Constantinescu, and Mihai Anitescu, "Stochastic simulation of predictive space-time scenarios of wind speed using observations and physical models." Vol 12(1), Pages 432-458, Annals of Applied Statistics, 2018. [Preprint # ANL/MCS-P5432-1015, http://arxiv.org/abs/1511.09416].
- Jiali Wang, Julie Bessac, Rao Kotamarthi, Emil M. Constantinescu, and Beth Drewniak, "Internal variability, regional climate model, spectral nudging, high spatial resolution, climate change." Climate Dynamics, Vol 50(11-12), Pages 4539-4559, 2018.
Emil Constantinescu, "Generalizing global error estimation for ordinary differential equations by using coupled time-stepping methods." Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, Vol 332(C), Pages 140-158, 2018. (https://arxiv.org/abs/1503.05166)
Noemi Petra, Cosmin G. Petra, Zheng Zhang*, Emil M. Constantinescu, and Mihai Anitescu, "A Bayesian approach for parameter estimation with uncertainty for dynamic power systems." IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 32(4), Pages 2735-2743, 2017.
Peng Wang, David Barajas-Solano, Emil Constantinescu, Shrirang S. Abhyankar, Debojyoti Ghosh*, Barry Smith, Zhenyu Huang, and Alexandre Tartakovsky, "Probabilistic density function method for stochastic ODEs of power systems with uncertain power input"; SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification (JUQ), Vol. 3(1), Pages 873-896, 2015.
Franck Cappello, Emil Constantinescu, Paul Hovland, Tom Peterka, Carolyn Phillips, Marc Snir, Stefan Wild, Improving the trust in results of numerical simulations and scientific data analytics,” MCS Report, ANL/MCS-TM-352, Published Online April 2015.
Ilias Bilionis*, Beth A. Drewniak, and Emil M. Constantinescu, "Crop physiology calibration in the CLM."Vol 8(4), Pages 1071-1083, Geoscientific Model Development, 2015.